- Impact is modelled with one formula: harm avoided = harm that would happen × share of visits where the history is on record × how much having the history reduces errors.
- The size of the reduction comes from trials of the closest existing tools: electronic prescribing cut prescribing errors by 48%[1]; pharmacist-checked medicine lists cut drug-harm hospital revisits by 67%[2].
- For every 1,000 doctors using 1Heath, by year three: about 4,000 history-related medication incidents and about 170 severe harms avoided each year, and a few deaths (about 4).
- If every Indian's history were available at every visit, the same evidence suggests about 3,000 hospital deaths and about 74,000 severe harms avoided every year.
- Most of the value is not in a single number: legible signed prescriptions, generic names, allergy checks at the pharmacy and a record that follows the family.
The Impact Formula
In one sentence: the harm 1Heath prevents = the harm that would have happened × how often the patient's history is already in 1Heath × how much having that history cuts errors.
| Input | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Consultations per doctor a year | 9,000 | 30 a day for 300 days; our planning assumption for a small clinic |
| Visits per patient a year | 3 | Our assumption; gives 3,000 patients per doctor |
| Coverage | 30% → 50% → 70% | Years one to three. Our assumption: coverage grows as patients return and families join |
| Effect | 28% to 67%, likely 48% | Electronic prescribing reduced prescribing errors by 48%[1]. Medicine reconciliation reduced emergency visits by 28% and drug-harm hospital revisits by 67%[2] |
These trials were in hospitals in high-income countries. 1Heath's own effect must be measured in its pilot; until then these are borrowed estimates.
Per 1,000 Doctors
1,000 doctors in their third year with 1Heath, step by step
- 1,000 doctors, each seeing about 30 patients a day for 300 daysour planning figure for a small clinic90 lakh visits
- About 1 visit in 40 has a safety problem2.5%, as on the burden page2.25 lakh
- About 1 in 3 of those involves a medicine35%78,750
- About 1 in 7 of those happens because the history was missing15%11,812
- By year three, about 7 in 10 patients already have their history in 1Heath70%, our assumption; it grows as patients return8,269
- Having the history checked by software prevents about half of these48%, from trials of electronic prescribing3,969 prevented
About 1 in 25 of those would have caused severe harm, so about 160 severe harms are prevented. A few of these patients are later admitted to hospital, where the same record prevents about 3 deaths a year.
| Avoided each year : middle estimate, with the likely range below | Year one | Year three |
|---|---|---|
| History-related medication incidents | 1,740820 to 3,240 | 4,0701,910 to 7,550 |
| Severe harms | 7226 to 163 | 16761 to 381 |
| Deaths (through hospital admissions) | 21 to 4 | 42 to 9 |
Deaths here count only patients of 1Heath clinics who are later admitted and whose record travels with them. It is small at 1,000 doctors, and we state it as it is.
At Scale
| Avoided each year : middle estimate, with the likely range below | 12,500 doctors | Whole country |
|---|---|---|
| History-related medication incidents | 50,80023,800 to 94,400 | 18 lakh8.4 to 33.6 lakh |
| Severe harms | 2,090770 to 4,760 | 73,90027,000 to 1,69,400 |
| Hospital deaths | 5423 to 115 | 2,9901,290 to 6,390 |
"Whole country" is a ceiling: the burden on the previous page multiplied by the effect, as if every visit had the full history. No single company reaches it; it is the size of the prize for India's digital health system as a whole.
How the System Changes
| Today | With a shared, signed record | Who benefits |
|---|---|---|
| The doctor relies on what the patient remembers | Allergies, current medicines from every system and past illnesses appear in seconds | Patient, doctor |
| Handwritten slips, sometimes illegible | Typed, signed prescriptions with brand and generic name | Pharmacist, patient |
| The pharmacist dispenses without knowing allergies | The pharmacy receives the signed prescription and allergy flags, never the note | Pharmacist, patient |
| Antibiotics sold without prescription; the Schedule H1 register is often empty | A real, signed prescription for the register to record[3] | Public health |
| Patients cannot compare brands | The generic name is on every line, so cheaper equivalents are visible[4] | Patient's pocket |
| In an emergency, no history at all | An emergency card with blood group, allergies and contacts, readable without unlocking | Patient, emergency team |
| One diagnosis protects nobody else | With consent, relatives at risk of an inherited condition can be offered testing | Families |
| Records stay at one clinic | Records can be shared through ABDM with the patient's consent, linked to their ABHA[5] | The whole system |
How We Will Measure the Real Impact
Borrowed effect sizes are a starting point. The pilot will measure 1Heath's own:
- 1
Allergy and interaction alerts that changed a prescription, counted from the signed record, per 1,000 consultations.
- 2
Coverage: the share of consultations where the patient already had a record, month by month.
- 3
Prescription completeness: strength, dose, frequency, duration and generic name present, against a sample of handwritten slips from the same clinics before 1Heath.
- 4
Independent review: a sample of flagged and unflagged consultations reviewed by a clinician who is not part of the team.
Sources
- Radley DC, Wasserman MR, Olsho LE, et al. Reduction in medication errors in hospitals due to adoption of computerized provider order entry systems. JAMIA, 2013 (AHRQ PSNet summary). psnet.ahrq.gov
- Mekonnen AB, McLachlan AJ, Brien JE. Effectiveness of pharmacist-led medication reconciliation programmes on clinical outcomes at hospital transitions: a systematic review and meta-analysis. BMJ Open, 2016. bmjopen.bmj.com
- BioSpectrum. Govt takes steps to contain anti-microbial resistance (Schedule H1), July 2014. biospectrumindia.com
- PTI via The Week. Over 18K Jan Aushadhi Kendras opened in last 11 years, 24 March 2026. theweek.in
- National Health Authority. ABDM Insights public dashboard, figures last updated 5 November 2026, 8:33 PM. dashboard.abdm.gov.in